Newsletter – Week 2 2026 – Prosperous 2026 to us all!

Week 2 2026

Welcome back, and wishing you, your family and loved ones a very peaceful, healthy and prosperous 2026. You are welcome to share this post or send us the email of friends who might like to join our mailing list. If you missed my latest posts, I have consolidated the 2026 ‘planning’ posts into one ebook, available (free) on request.

Your summary with links, if you’d like to curate your content:

Market Resilience and Liquidity Support
Markets defied repeated calls for a downturn, with US equities holding up and South African equities delivering exceptional returns, led by a sharp rebound in resource stocks. Global liquidity remained the key support, and the Fed’s shift in December from quantitative tightening to balance-sheet support improved market mechanics, even if it was not enough on its own to drive a broad-based risk rally.

Valuations, Venezuela, Earnings, and China’s Influence
US earnings continue to be strong, but stretched valuations leave little room for disappointment. In contrast, valuations outside the US are more attractive, while China’s renewed liquidity push could support its own markets and commodity-linked economies, reinforcing the case for looking beyond the US.

The US Dollar and Inflation Risk
The US dollar is the major wildcard for 2026, caught between policy preferences for a weaker currency, potential inflation pressures from heavy Treasury issuance, and countervailing forces such as global demand for US assets and improved energy supply dynamics.

Economic Cycle vs Market Cycle
The US business cycle remains intact, pointing to continued economic growth, but markets may struggle as they look ahead to a peaking cycle and eventual slowdown. The result could be the paradox of a decent economy alongside lacklustre market returns.

Diversification in a Fragmenting World
Diversification will be critical, with bonds potentially regaining appeal, emerging markets offering relative stability, and commodities tied closely to Chinese stimulus. All of this unfolds in a world where US-China geopolitical and economic decoupling is reshaping global markets and setting the tone for the decade ahead.

Silver has had an interesting run

RSA

  • The South African rand has been strong and steady against the US dollar as markets price in external data, with the currency trading around R16.50 and the JSE hitting record levels last week.
  • Goldman Sachs and others expect the rand to extend gains, partly due to easing global rates and stronger fundamentals after repeated Fed rate cuts weigh on the dollar.
  • Further SARB interest rate cuts in 2026 are anticipated on the back of inflation tracking lower following a new target framework.
  • Macro headwinds remain. South Africa’s economic growth outlook for 2026 is muted, with lingering structural challenges and weak investment flows. We are watching the politics in KZN this week as the MK party might claw back into power and oust the ANC/DA coalition (thanks to a single member of a tiny party who could tip the scales).
  • Domestic policy signals include continued debate over fiscal direction and potential exclusion from high-profile forums like the G20, which could affect positioning and investor confidence (if they can’t see through the petty political moves by Trump).

United States market and economic news

Major US stock indices continued their upward trajectory.

Labour market data looms large this week with expectations for slower payroll gains and a modest dip in the unemployment rate, reinforcing a “stickier” jobs picture despite rate cuts.

The Supreme Court’s pending decision on Trump’s emergency tariff powers is injecting risk into markets and trade forecasts, with potential cost implications for importers.

Regulatory moves in financial markets saw a US derivatives platform earn nods from regulators, signalling expansion in digital assets and prediction markets. The Congressional Budget Office forecast called for future Fed rate cuts this year, with inflation staying above target and modest GDP growth through 2026.

Global markets and economics (excluding US and RSA)

Global stocks opened 2026 cautiously optimistic, with Asian markets like Tokyo’s Nikkei and Seoul’s Kospi up at the start of the year despite mixed manufacturing signals.

Oil prices climbed slightly, supported by geopolitical complexities and supply concerns, even as markets await major data releases like China’s inflation numbers.

European data showed producer prices rising at the fastest pace in months, adding nuance to inflation expectations outside the US.

Broader economic outlooks from multilateral sources project global growth around or below pre-pandemic averages, with structural risks including trade tensions and supply shocks. Risk sentiment globally is holding at cautious optimism, with currency markets and risk assets reacting to mixed macro cues and geopolitical headlines.

2025 wrapped up

After the calm (and dare I say) almost sleepiness of Biden’s tenure in the White House, if you were hoping for a bit more excitement, you certainly got it, and the ‘good’ news is that we’re only ¼ of the way through Hurricane Donald.

On February 19, barely a month after Trump was sworn in, the S&P 500 closed at its 3rd all-time high of the year, up 4.5% year-to-date, and was slowly easing down when ‘Liberation day’ unfolded, which liberated billions off the stock exchanges in a short, sharp correction.

On April 2 came “Liberation Day,” and with it “reciprocal tariff rates” that were much higher than anyone expected in nearly every country around the world.

The market reaction was swift, with the S&P 500’s decline reaching -21% by April 7, the 2nd fastest bear market in history.

When the market closed April 8, it was down over 15% on the year, the 4th worst start to a year in history. All hope was lost. Or so it seemed…

When were the new punitive tariff rates supposed to begin? April 9.

And when did they actually begin? Never. On April 9, President Trump did a 180 degree reversal, initiating a 90-day pause on the higher planned tariff rates for all countries except China.

The US stock market rose 9.5% that day in its third biggest one-day gain since 1950.

In the subsequent weeks and months, this same pattern would play out again and again. New tariffs were threatened and announced only to be removed or delayed within hours/days. And when the about face came, the stock market would explode higher, not only erasing the prior losses but tacking on additional gains as well.

Thus, the “TACO trade” was born, whereby “Trump Always Chickens Out” after announcing aggressive tariff policies. And with each new tariff threat, the sell-offs seemed to become smaller, as fewer market participants believed they would actually be enacted. By the end of June, the fears over tariffs had vanished, and the S&P 500 was back at all-time highs. This was one of the fastest turnarounds in market history, with the S&P 500 gaining 22% in just 12 weeks.

And the 64% decline in the $VIX (volatility index) during this period was the biggest volatility crash we’ve ever seen.

It took less than 3 months from the April 2025 bear market lows for the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high. That was the 2nd fastest recovery for US stocks in the last 75 years, trailing only the vertical rally in 1982.

During bear markets, it’s tempting to think you can get out and get back in when the “coast is clear.” The only problem? By the time the coast is clear, many of the best days and biggest gains will have already passed. We saw that once again in 2025.

A Wave of Easing With the exception of Brazil and Japan, nearly all of the major global central banks cut interest rates in 2025, with RSA cutting a full 1%. RSA has finally managed to keep inflation down at developed nation levels for 2 years, since circa October 2024. SARB is still keeping the interest rates fairly high – this is probably mostly a ‘risk’ premium that comes from being an emerging nation. Our low ‘imported’ inflation from things like oil has also helped.

Image: RSA Inflation

The US Federal Reserve cut rates by another 75 bps (25 bps in September, October, and December), adding to the 100 bps of rate cuts in 2024.

That brought the Fed Funds Rate down to a new range of 3.50% to 3.75%. That is still a long way off the decade of ultra-low rates. I have mentioned it before, but it is important to realise that the impact of interest rates in different countries hits differently, usually based on its effect on the mortgage rates. Credit card interest rates remain obscenely high, irrespective of interest rates – usually north of 18% in the USA (and here too, of course). In the USA the mortgage rate is usually fixed 20 or 30 years, and is based off the ten year treasury rate. This has been a huge problem for people wanting to move homes since the rapid rise of the treasury rate. Adjustable-rate mortgages (which are the norm in RSA) are only just starting to become popular in the US.  

Why did the Fed cut rates?

Growing evidence of a weaker labour market, which saw the Unemployment Rate rise to 4.6% (highest since September 2021) and jobs growth slow to just 10k per month (over the last 4 months, fewest since 2020 recession). What about the other part of their “dual mandate,” maintaining price stability?”

They seem to be ignoring that for now, with US CPI averaging close to 4% per year since the start of 2020, nearly double the Fed’s target.

While Americans live in the real world of punishing cumulative inflation, the Fed is only focused on how much prices have increased over the last 12 months. And while even those prices have yet to hit the Fed’s 2% target (the latest CPI report showed a 2.7% YoY increase), the Fed still believes monetary easing is warranted.

As for QT (Quantitative Tightening), that came to an end in November with the Fed’s balance sheet shrinking by over $2.4 trillion from its 2022 peak.

And without any pause or delay, a new QE (Quantitative Easing) program has begun, starting in December with $40 billion per month of Treasury Bills. After four straight years with a balance sheet reduction (2022-25), the Fed will enter 2026 printing money and expanding its balance sheet once again.

In a year filled with many surprises, rising National Debt wasn’t one of them. Everyone expected the US’s debt to increase and increase it did, rising another $2.3 trillion in 2025 to end the year at $38.5 trillion. This is a ticking time bomb. The National Debt has more than doubled over the last decade.

To say the US government is spending money like a “drunken sailor” would be an insult to drunken sailors who at least a) spend their own money and b) quit when they run out of funds. In contrast, the US government has no constraints – they spend other people’s money and then print and spend even more, borrowing to close the gap.

With the passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill” came a host of new tax cuts in addition to the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. There was also a $5 trillion increase in the “debt ceiling,” meaning another showdown is likely at some point in 2027. The question is not whether they continue to run a deficit in the years to come (absent real spending cuts, we most certainly will), but how big those deficits will be.

January 30, 2026 is the current big US govt deadline; most federal funding provided after the long 2025 shutdown expires then. If Congress doesn’t pass full appropriations or another continuing resolution (temporary funding bill) by that date, a partial or full shutdown would start on January 31.

The World Strikes Back

If someone told you the US would increase overall tariff rates from 2% to 14% in 2025, you would likely have assumed that this would have hurt international stocks as US imports would decline and the Dollar would rise.

But, the exact opposite occurred, with imports spiking to due to the front-running of tariffs and international stocks outperforming US stocks by their widest margin since 1993.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index fell 9% on the year as international currencies rose in value, providing an additional boost to US-based investor returns.

What about stock market returns last year?

We all know that RSA Inc had a good run last year, mostly coming from those volatile mining stocks that we love to hate, until they have run like last year!

While international stocks reversed a 16-year trend of US outperformance in 2025, the same could not be said for major factors within the US market.The S&P 500 Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index by 34% over the past 3 years, the widest 3-year performance gap in history.

This is a nuance that many retail or DIY investors miss. Most of the US stockmarkets are top-heavy with some very heavy hitters (the Mag 7) , and if you buy the index and they over-perform, as they have for 3 years on the trot, that index gives great returns. If those heavy hitting stocks are down-weighted in an equal weighted index, sharing the same weighting of all the other 500 odd companies – it’s not quite as pretty.

Speaking of bubbles, many comparisons have been made to the dot-com era with AI boosting optimism and valuations to levels we haven’t seen since back then.

The US Tech sector outperformance hit a new record high in 2025, moving above the peak from 2024 and March 2000. Yes, they are dancing the same ‘Party like it’s 1999’ tune – but the lyrics are quite different – for some of the heavy hitters.

The true value of AI at business and retail level still has to play out, but Nvidia is actually selling chips, so that at least is not smoke and mirrors and some of the other big hitters – Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft are in a better position to leverage AI in their existing businesses. It is the smaller players in more niche markets, some with stratospheric PEs (Palantir, for example at 424) that are probably on more rocky ground.  

The “Magnificent Seven” stocks ended the year at close to 35%, another record high. The weighting of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 grew to a record 39% as the biggest stocks in the index outperformed once again. Interestingly, only Google and NVidia outperformed the S&P 500 last year. This is a strong indication that investors are looking for the ‘next leg’ in this AI race – and the other 5 are fast becoming the ‘also-rans’.

Which means that investors are trying to decipher who the biggest AI winners will be. This will be one of the key things investors will be watching in 2026.

The Physical/Digital Gold Divergence

Gold ended 2025 up over 64%, its best year since 1979.

That gain was more than enough to push real (inflation-adjusted) gold prices up to new highs for the first time since the 1980 peak.

Gold thrives on uncertainty, and there was plenty of it to go around in 2025 with the tariff turmoil and the longest government shutdown in history. It also likely benefitted from the falling dollar, increase in national debt, and the unnecessary/unwarranted monetary easing from the Fed.

Up until early October, Bitcoin seemed to be benefitting from many of the same narratives, but after a 36% correction, it would end the year down 6%. Was this simply a reversion to the mean after an incredible run that saw Bitcoin more than double in both 2023 and 2024 and spike to a peak of $126,000 in 2025? Or is this the start of a bigger Bitcoin correction like we saw most recently in 2022 (-78%) and 2018 (-84)? Like many questions in markets, these can only be answered with the benefit of hindsight.

Triumph of the Optimists

The recession that many predicted during the tariff tantrum in April never arrived.

After a 0.6% decline in Q1, Real GDP in the US grew 3.8% in Q2 and 4.2% in Q3 (annualised rate).

That brings the US economic expansion up to 65 months (from April 2020) and counting, with most now expecting it to continue for at least another quarter (latest Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP estimate: +2.7%). Frankly, without the Covid blip (short, sharp two-month correction), the US would probably be looking at the longest expansion period in history, since June 2009 (over 190 months).

The S&P 500 ended the year up 18% on a total return basis, earning a double-digit percentage gain for the third straight year. What propelled the US stock market higher?

Earnings and expectations.

S&P 500 operating earnings rose 13% during the year to new record highs. And on top of that growth they saw the S&P 500’s P/E ratio moving up to 26x at year-end from 25.2x at the start of the year. Expectations for future growth are high, with the S&P 500’s P/E ratio now 40% above the historical median since 1989.

Expectations within the corporate bond market are lofty as well, with investors reaching for yield as if there will never be a default cycle again. The Aggregate US bond market was up over 7% in 2025, its best year since 2020.

The US 60/40 portfolio, which had been declared “dead” by many in 2022 when both stocks/bonds fell, rose 13.6% in 2025, following gains of 15.5% in 2024 and 18% in 2023. Stocks have done the heavy lifting over the past seven years, responsible for nearly all of the 60/40 portfolio’s 11.6% annualized gain. The 18% annualized return for US stocks over the last seven years is the highest since early 2001.

The graph below gives an interesting snapshot of the winning and losing stocks on the DOW last year:

You can see there are some interesting trends: Healthcare (about to be hit by cuts in ‘Obama care’ subsidies), and ‘retail’ products (affordability issues?). Salesforce is being left behind in the AI space alongside other CRM providers.

The S&P500 saw the 4th worst start to a year in history was followed by a 37% advance to year-end, one of the greatest market comebacks in history.

Venezuela and oil

Venezuela’s vast oil reserves have long bound the country to the United States, first through decades of U.S. investment and crude imports, then through intense geopolitical confrontation after Hugo Chávez and later Nicolás Maduro used control of PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.,  Venezuela’s state-owned oil and gas company) to finance a socialist project and challenge Washington’s influence.

Chronic underinvestment, expropriations, and political interference caused production to collapse, and successive waves of U.S. financial and oil sanctions from 2017 onward further choked exports and starved the regime of hard currency, even as Maduro relied on illicit crude trades and alleged narcotics networks to stay afloat.

Don’t think for a minute that suddenly more oil is going to be flooding into the markets. Massive investments – hundreds of billions of dollars, would be required to get oil flowing again, and knowing that Trump’s ‘policies’ have the half-life of a may fly (24 hrs if you were wondering), nobody is going to do that. Most of the oil flowing from those fields is known as ‘ Venezuelan Heavy’ (circa $30 a barrel) (as opposed to ‘Texas Sweet’ $58, Brent $60) and is hard to refine (and costs much less).

Washington framed these sanctions and legal cases as efforts to fight corruption, narco terrorism, and the diversion of oil wealth, eventually putting a multimillion-dollar bounty on Maduro and tying oil relief to political concessions he largely failed to deliver.

As Venezuela’s economic crisis deepened and disputes over expropriated U.S. oil assets sharpened, the Trump administration escalated pressure with an “oil quarantine” and regional military buildup, culminating in the January 2026 special forces raid in Caracas that captured Maduro and put him on a U.S. warship bound for New York on drug and weapons charges. Make no mistake, Maduro is a nasty piece of work, and Venezuela is better off without him, but the manner in which it was done should give every other Western global leader pause – and the globe’s anaemic response has probably given China, Russia and North Korea confidence to do as they please.

Is this an attempt to muscle China’s influence out of the Americas?

Any durable solution to Venezuela’s crisis is likely to involve someone buying more Venezuelan oil, with China being a central player due to its historical demand for Venezuelan crude.

China’s appetite for oil is sated (thanks, in the main, to an explosion of its renewable energy sector), with demand stagnating for products like gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, and the country’s crude demand expected to peak before next year, making it a tough climate for Venezuela to rebuild its oil industry.

From one angle, the US action to arrest Venezuela’s former President Nicolas Maduro and seize control of the country’s oil industry is an attempt to muscle China’s influence out of the Americas.

In a world breaking up into spheres of influence, the ‘Donroe doctrine’ tells Beijing to keep its meddling hands out of the empire of crude that President Donald Trump is building in the Western Hemisphere. And yet China will be central to the next act in Venezuela’s drama — because any durable solution to its long-running crisis is likely to involve someone, somewhere, buying more Venezuelan oil. Probably much more worryingly is that the ‘acquisition’/Kidnapping/capture of Maduro will have set a very bad precedent for any country that has its eyes on another territory – Taiwan anyone?

“In terms of other countries that want oil, we’re in the oil business, we’re gonna sell it to them,” Trump said in a Jan. 3 press conference. “We’re not gonna say we’re not gonna give it to them. In other words, we’ll be selling oil, probably in much larger doses.”

The rhetoric has gone from ‘drill-baby-drill’ to ‘oil from anywhere as long as it’s cheap’. This is a double-edged sword. Rig activity has quietly declined by around 15% year on year.  Unlike Saudi Arabia, oil rigs are privately owned, and when the price of crude goes below their break-even point, they shut down.

Most U.S. shale drillers and fracking-focused producers currently need WTI in roughly the mid 60s to around 70 dollars per barrel to justify drilling new wells, while many existing shale wells cover cash costs at roughly 30–35 dollars.

The average breakeven for new U.S. shale wells near 65–70 dollars, with large, efficient operators somewhat lower (around low 60s) and higher cost small operators somewhat above that range.

Conventional offshore projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico tend to have somewhat lower technical breakevens (around 35–60 dollars depending on the field), but full cycle offshore averages sit closer to the high 50s per barrel once total project costs are included.

China, the biggest contributor to oil demand growth in recent decades and the key customer for Venezuelan crude, is needing smaller doses as consumption shrinks. Any plans to make money from rebuilding Venezuela’s status as a major oil exporter will have to reckon with the fact that the biggest importer is pulling back from the market.

Chinese refiners have far more spare capacity for extra Venezuelan crude.

Since the first round of sanctions against Venezuela’s oil industry in 2019, its customer base has narrowed to just two countries: The US (where exports are occasionally allowed under a special waiver) and China, the only country with the financial and political muscle to flout Washington’s sanctions regime.

The key players here are the so-called teapot refiners, a collection of privately owned plants which cluster in Shandong province south of Beijing (usually disguised as coming from Malaysia). They have attracted a reputation over the years for surviving by the skin of their teeth while competing with better-connected, better-capitalized state oil companies.

They’ve been the most important consumers of Venezuelan crude for years. Until about 2021, they were eager buyers of the country’s thick, viscous product — unattractive to many refiners, because it’s hard to process — due to its suitability for producing asphalt for road surfaces and roofing. Shandong’s refineries churn out about 40% of the total — a good trade when China’s real estate boom was at its height.

When the Chinese property bubble burst in 2021, that trade slumped to barely more than half of where it was at its 2020 peak — but the teapot refiners found a new angle. By buying sanctioned oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia at steep discounts to normal prices, they’ve managed to continue eking out the thinnest of margins.

Much now depends on whether China will even be allowed to buy Venezuela’s crude. Trump’s comments suggest he’s in the same mercenary mode that’s allowed US-China ethane trade to continue largely unhindered through a year of tariff chaos. Still, it’s possible that more ideological considerations will lead to Beijing getting blocked. Even without that, a removal of sanctions would certainly raise the price of Venezuelan crude, which might undermine the teapots’ threadbare margins. Meanwhile, the security situation in Caracas appears to be fluid at best. Washington may not have the final say in any outcome.

Either way, it’s not clear that there is a need out there for more barrels from South America. With electric vehicles now comprising more than half of China’s auto sales, gasoline inventories at the teapots are at their highest seasonal levels in more than two decades. Unlike the US refineries on the coast of Louisiana and Texas best-suited to processing Venezuelan crude, which have been operating at close to 100% capacity in recent months, the teapots have been running below 50% for most of the past year. India is likely the only other place with the ability and space to process more heavy crude.

From asphalt, to gasoline, diesel and kerosene (which have both seen demand stagnate since Covid), China’s appetite for oil is sated. Only petrochemicals and plastics are growing, and they depend on light, semi-gaseous hydrocarbons where Venezuela is less generously endowed, The biggest state-owned refiner, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, expects the country’s crude demand to peak before next year.

That’s a tough climate in which to rebuild an oil industry decimated by decades of corruption and waste. Venezuela needs long-term buyers for its most important export. With global investment in upstream oil extraction declining, there’s rarely been a worse time to sign up new customers.

Silver

The global silver market has shifted from a relatively sleepy precious metal segment into one of the most volatile and closely watched parts of the commodities complex, as structural industrial demand has collided with constrained supply and a surge in financial investment flows.

Silver sits at the junction of monetary and industrial use: it trades with gold during risk-off episodes but is also a critical input for solar PV, EVs, electronics and data centre hardware tied to AI and cloud computing. This dual role means macro variables (rates, dollar, geopolitics) and real economy factors (energy transition spending, electronics cycles) now simultaneously drive price formation, amplifying moves in both directions.

The recent sudden increase in silver prices has been driven by the convergence of tight physical balances, policy shocks and speculative positioning.

Consecutive years of market deficit, demand exceeding mine and scrap supply have all drawn down inventories just as solar and EV demand accelerated and several countries, including the US, moved to classify silver as a critical material and floated tariff or export control measures, prompting stockpiling and localised shortages. At the same time, aggressive interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar and heightened geopolitical risk have boosted safe-haven and ETF demand, while momentum and FOMO trading amplified the rally, pushing prices beyond prior records and causing silver to outperform gold on a percentage basis in 2025.

The outlook for 2026 is for a still tight but more two-sided market, with high volatility around an elevated price range rather than a smooth trend. Major banks and commodity analysts see structural deficits and strong industrial offtake as supportive, with some forecasts targeting average prices in the mid $60s per ounce area if current supply constraints and energy transition demand persist. However, risks include demand destruction from high prices, further “thrifting” of silver in PV applications, possible easing of policy tensions (tariffs/export curbs), and any reversal in ETF or speculative flows, so 2026 is likely to feature sharp corrections within what remains, on balance, a bullish longer-term environment.

Author: Dawn Ridler

2026 loading…

The year proved to be a resilient year for markets again, despite many naysayers declaring the end of the US market’s bull run. SA Equities (42.4%), most notably Resource stocks (126%) had a resurgence which is going to prove to be good news for the South African economy if it holds up. Much of the good news in markets has been underpinned by global liquidity, despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts at Quantitative Tightening. That officially ended in December as the money markets warranted a start in Quantitative Easing again. Called Reserve Management Purchases by the Fed, it is slated to amount to $40billion a month. This will assist market mechanics, but is probably not enough to lift overall risk assets meaningfully without other factors as well.

US Earnings continue to be robust and unless these surprise the already heightened expectations, extended valuations for US equities may prove difficult to sustain. We are also considering the fact that outside of the US, valuations are cheaper and that China is embarking on their own liquidity trajectory to further detach from the US economy. This should be positive for not only Chinese stocks, but markets linked to Chinese growth such as commodity markets. The big question mark for 2026 is going to be around the value of the US Dollar. We know that the US Treasury wants a cheaper Dollar but more demand for US Treasuries may be forthcoming as extra Chinese liquidity attempts to find a home. It is feared that US inflation may spike due to the excess issuance of US Treasuries. Consider however, that they will be able to control price inflation a lot better after taking control of Venezuelan oil assets, which boast the world’s largest deposits. Again, this could be positive for the Dollar.

The good news for the US administration is that the US business cycle continues to be intact, and this should lead to GDP growth benefitting the average American. This has been a cornerstone policy for the Trump administration which is yet to be felt by Mainstreet USA. The market and business cycles though are different things and markets often lead the business cycle as they anticipate future growth. The irony of 2026 could be that the US economy actually does well, but that the market remains lacklustre as it contends with not only high valuations, but looking through the peaking business cycle to the next downturn.

As always, diversification is going to play a key role in returns during the year. A volatile equity market may see interest in bond markets again, especially in the US. Emerging market exposure could end up being surprisingly less volatile than Western markets whereas Commodities hinge on Chinese stimulus. What is important to remember is that the US and China are detaching geopolitically with their centres of influence becoming more regionalised. This means that any shared resources and markets will continue to find a new norm. This is and will continue to be a major theme for the coming decade.

Author: Cobie Le Grange

EXCHANGE RATES and other Indices: 

The Rand/Dollar closed at R16.50 (…R16.91, R17.13, R17.36, R17.13, R17.27, R17.31, R17.25, R17.38, R17.50, R17.22 , R17.35, R17.33, R17.37, R17.58, R17.65, R17.44, R17.61, R17.74, R18.15,R17.76, R17.72, R17.90, R17.58, R17.89, R17.99, R17.92, R17.77, R17.95, R17.88)

The Rand/Pound closed at R22.13 (…R22.57, R22.68, R22.74, R22.56, R22.69, R22.76, R22.96, R23.34, R23.37, R23.19, R23.22, R23.35, R23.55, R23.73, R23.84, R23.53, R23.84, R23.84, R24.09, R23.88, R23.76, R24.22, R24.08, R24.49, R24.22, R24.35,  R24.05, R24.18)

The Rand/Euro closed the week at R19.20 (…R19.68, R19.86, R19.99, R19.96, R19.98, R20.02, R20.06, R20.26, R20.33, R 20.22, R20.30, R20.35, R20.38, R20.61,  R20.62, R20.44, R20.56, R20.64, R21.04, R20.86, R20.61, R20.93, R 20.70, R20.91, R20.74, R20.68, R20.24, R20,37)

Brent Crude: Closed the week $63.34 (…$63.71, $63.19, $62.42, $63.94, $63.61 $64.66, $65.04, $61.27, $62.14, $64.28, $69.67, $66.57, $66.80, $65.52, $67.38, $67.73, $66.08, $66.07, $69.46, $68.29, $69.21, $70.58, $68.27, $67.39, $77.27, $74.38, $66.56, $62.61, $65.41)

Bitcoin closed at $90,585 (… $90,809, $86,334, $94,990, $101,562, $109.936, $112,492, $106,849, $111,888, $124,858, $109,446, $115,838, $115,770,  $110,752, $108,923, $114,916, $117,371, $118,043, $113,608, $118,139, $118,214, $117,871, $108,056, $107,461, $103,455) 

Articles and Blogs:   

Holiday checklist NEW
Next year – Action Plan NEW
Next year – Vision, Mission etc NEW
Medical Risk Mitigation
Next Year – Consolidation
Abdication or diversification?
Carbo-loading your retirement Spoiled for choice
Who needs a plan anyway
8 questions you need to ask about retirement 
What to do when interest rates drop 
How to survive volatility in your investments 

What to do when interest rates drop 
Difficult Financial Conversations 
Financial Implications of Longevity 
Kick Start Your Own Retirement Plan
You matter more than your kids in retirement 
To catch a falling knife
Income at retirement 
2025 Budget
Apportioning blame for your financial state 
Tempering fear and greed 
New Year’s resolutions over? Try a Wealth Bingo Card instead.
Wills and Estate Planning (comprehensive 3 in one post) 
Pre-retirement – The make-or-break moments 
Some unconventional thoughts on wealth and risk management 
Wealth creation is a balancing act over time
Wealth traps waiting for unsuspecting entrepreneurs
Two Pot pension system demystified 

Cobie Legrange and Dawn Ridler, 
Rexsolom Invest, Licensed FSP 45521.
Email: cobie@rexsolom.co.za, dawn@rexsolom.co.za
Website: rexsolom.co.za, wealthecology.co.za

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