Newsletter – Week 4 2026 – Davos dominates headlines

I hope you’ve all had a great start to 2026.  You are welcome to share this post or send us the email addresses of friends who might like to join our mailing list.

If you missed my latest posts, I have consolidated the 2026 ‘planning’ posts into one ebook, available (free) on request.

Your summary with links, if you’d like to curate your content:

RSA Inflation and SARB Policy Outlook
South African CPI edged up to 3.6 percent year on year in December, averaging 3.2 percent in 2025, below the SARB’s forecast and at a 21‑year low, and with Governor Kganyago signalling inflation around the 3 percent range this year and gradual convergence to a 3 percent target by 2027, markets are leaning toward a 25 basis point cut to 6.5 percent on 29 January even as housing, food and financial services remain the main price drivers and some risk the bank may still pause given global uncertainty.

Japan: Bond Market Rupture
Japan’s once ultra‑stable, low‑yield bond market has flipped into a source of global risk as 40‑year yields push above 4 percent for the first time in three decades, driven by reduced central‑bank buying, rising supply to fund tax cuts and weak auction demand, lifting borrowing costs, exposing life insurers to large paper losses and raising the risk of spillovers into other sovereign markets already grappling with higher deficits and Trump‑era inflation pressures.

Global Bonds and Trump‑Era Policy Shock
Longer‑dated bonds worldwide are under pressure as Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and aggressive Greenland‑related moves heighten inflation and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to demand higher yields and question how far central banks can keep easing without further undermining bond demand.

Davos: Geopolitics, Technology and a Changing Order
Davos discussions this year centre on contested globalisation and where new growth will come from in a world of weak productivity and high debt, highlighting structural imbalances between the US, China and Europe, the rise of generative AI, quantum and biotech as new growth engines, and the need for responsible AI governance, while climate, energy security, inequality, trust and resilient supply chains are treated as critical but politically sensitive themes rather than headline priorities.

Davos: Trump, the “New Order” and Market Anxiety
Trump’s presence at Davos underscores a break with the old rules‑based order as the US openly bullies allies, toys with Greenland annexation and weaponises tariffs and access to finance and technology, even as billionaire wealth and tech‑sector alignment with an America‑first AI agenda surge, leaving the forum’s “Spirit of Dialogue” theme at odds with pervasive concern about erratic US power and a speech riddled with factual misstatements on NATO, energy, China, the 2020 election and his foreign‑policy record.

Davos: Carney, Middle Powers and Capital Allocation
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney argues that the world is in a rupture rather than a transition and urges middle powers and companies to stop “living within a lie” of subordination to great powers, with Canada’s new China‑EV and agriculture deal signalling a more independent path, and he warns that a fortress‑style global economy will be poorer and more fragile, making country risk, supply‑chain location, pricing power and currency dynamics as important as valuation when allocating capital.

Davos: Diversification and AI Valuations
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti says diversification is more vital than ever even though there are effectively no risk‑free assets and “no choice to the dollar,” while he and Gita Gopinath see rising geopolitical influence on equity prices, stretched AI valuations with system‑wide implications in any correction, and near‑term US inflation risks from dollar weakness and fiscal stimulus that sharpen voter concerns over affordability into the November midterms.

Emerging‑Market Equities and ETFs
Emerging‑market equities and ETFs are enjoying renewed “time in the sun” as investors rotate out of US assets, with the flagship iShares Core MSCI EM ETF drawing about 6 billion dollars of inflows while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF suffers heavy outflows. EM indices outperform the S&P 500 for a second year and higher‑quality emerging markets benefit from stronger external balances and more predictable policies despite Trump‑related volatility.

South Africa

  • The rand has held near a three-year high around 16.2–16.5 per dollar, trading in a tight range.
  • A stronger rand is increasingly seen as a tailwind for imported inflation and fuel costs, with public discussion focusing on whether the move is cyclical or the start of a more sustained re rating.
  • Ongoing fuel price cuts announced for January continue to frame the near-term inflation narrative, with earlier official statements detailing large reductions in petrol and diesel feeding through to transport and food costs.
  • Market participants note that domestic assets remain driven by global dollar dynamics and geopolitical tensions, even as local fundamentals have improved versus 2023–24.
  • BRICS-related naval and geopolitical ties, plus broader US–EU tensions, are flagged in offshore commentary as background risks that could inject volatility into the rand if risk-off accelerates.

United States

  • US equities have been volatile after President Trump’s renewed tariff threats toward European NATO allies over Greenland, with one session seeing the S&P 500 drop about 2.1% and briefly erase its year to date gain.
  • Earlier in the week, the S&P 500 was trading just below the 7,000 level, with dip buyers still described as active and support eyed near 6,850 as earnings season ramps up.
  • Sector-wise, recent sessions have shown rotation into defensives and staples while rate-sensitive real estate outperformed, with bank earnings mixed but supported by strong trading revenue amid politically driven volatility.
  • Macro data remains broadly supportive: industrial production surprised to the upside in December and capacity utilisation ticked higher, helping anchor growth expectations.

Global

  • Brent crude has traded in the mid 60s, around $63.5–$64.5 dollars, ending last week slightly lower but ticking up again, with reports emphasising improved supply, lingering Middle East risk and a still bearish overall trend versus a year ago.
  • Global equity review shows emerging markets leading this week, with emerging large-cap strategies up about 1.8% week to date and drawing roughly 5.5 billion dollars of the 8.3 billion dollars in net inflows.
  • Developed ex-US markets (EAFE) continue to grind higher, supported by corporate earnings growth that is currently running at roughly twice the US pace, helping narrow performance gaps.
  • Precious metals remain a notable pocket of strength, with gold and especially silver showing strong year to date gains and attracting safe-haven and momentum flows amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

Broad global risk sentiment this week has been shaped by US–EU trade tensions, which have encouraged some rotation toward gold and high-quality assets even as ex-US equities and emerging market funds still recorded positive weekly performance and inflows.

RSA Inflation, interest rates and the SARB

South African inflation edged up slightly in December, but that’s unlikely to deter the central bank from cutting interest rates next week, as pricing pressures are expected to remain benign.

Throughout the year, “we expect” inflation for each one of the months to stay in the 3% range, South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago told Bloomberg Television at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday 21st prior to the data release.

“We think that inflation this year will average anything around 3.5%”, and by 2027, it will converge toward “our new 3% target. That then says that we still have room to ease policy”

Consumer prices rose an annual 3.6% from 3.5% in November, according to Statistics South Africa, averaging 3.2% for 2025. That was below the central bank’s 3.3% forecast and the lowest rate in 21 years. In July, the bank indicated its preference to target inflation at 3% — a goal that was formally adopted by the National Treasury in November. This may prompt the central bank’s monetary policy committee to cut rates on Jan. 29. We could expect a 25-basis-point cut in January to 6.5.%.

Inflation has likely peaked and is set to slow in the first half of 2026. That, combined with a restrictive policy stance, leaves room for further rate cuts.

The yield on the 2030 government bond fell after the data, dropping six basis points to 7.38%.

Graph RSA 2030

The biggest contributors to inflation were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages and insurance and financial services, at 4.9%, 4.4% and 7%, respectively.

There is still a possibility that the central bank may err on the side of caution and hold rates next week amid heightened global uncertainty.

Japan’s bonds

In the previous newsletter, we touched on Japan and their bonds, but last week that all blew up.

Japanese bonds used to have such low yields that they acted as a kind of anchor for the global debt market, adding downward pressure on government borrowing costs the world over. No longer. The yield on 40-year Japanese bonds rocketed above 4% in mid-January, a first for any maturity of the nation’s sovereign debt in more than three decades. One reason is that the Bank of Japan, which owns more than half of the nation’s sovereign notes, has begun to scale back bond purchases. Another is the possibility of additional government bond sales to fund Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s tax-cutting plans.

The result has been months of uncharacteristic volatility, including several underwhelming auctions of government debt. Investors are on guard for the moves in Japanese bonds to spill over into the global bond market, where yields have been marching higher amid concerns over the ability of governments worldwide to rein in persistent budget deficits.

What’s (usually) the appeal of government bonds?

Government bonds are generally considered one of the safest assets to invest in because they’re deemed relatively unlikely that the issuer — a government — will go bankrupt. That’s because a government sets its own rules and can typically raise money when it needs to. Long-term bonds tend to offer investors relatively high yields for relatively low risk because the investor is agreeing to, and locking in, an interest rate for a significant period of time, like 20 or 40 years.

Japan’s $7.5 trillion bond market, in particular, has for decades been considered one of the most stable. But recently demand has been weak, for a few reasons, which has caused the price of bonds to fall, and yields to inversely rise.

Why has demand been weak?

Japan’s central bank has long been the dominant buyer of Japanese government bonds. The country had, until recently, been in a cycle of deflation since the 1990s, known as the “Lost Decades.” Buying bonds, which allows the government to issue more debt and spend more as a result, has been part of the BOJ’s strategy to stimulate the economy. But as Japan emerges from deflation and is no longer focused on bolstering the economy through bond purchases, the central bank has started to scale back its massive holdings, which hit a record high in November 2023. With the BOJ stepping back, there simply aren’t enough other buyers to absorb the supply, leaving demand weak.

On Nov. 21, the Japanese government approved a ¥21.3 trillion ($137 billion) stimulus package — its biggest such spending plan since the pandemic. Takaichi has also called an early election for Feb. 8 and promised to suspend Japan’s 8% sales tax on food items for two years if her coalition wins.

That has unnerved some investors because such measures typically require additional government borrowing, which means more bonds issued. Typically, when the supply of bonds increases, their price falls — and investors don’t want to be stuck with assets that could lose value.

Takaichi hasn’t clarified how she would pay for the tax cut, but the move is expected to cost roughly ¥5 trillion per year, according to the Finance Ministry. A strong showing at the polls would also likely embolden Takaichi to push ahead with further stimulus measures. The main opposition group, the Centrist Reform Alliance, has also pledged to abolish the food tax permanently, fueling concerns about weaker fiscal discipline across the political spectrum.

At the same time, improving returns on Japanese debt may eventually put a floor under prices. Foreign buyers are taking advantage of the highest yields in years because hedging the yen back into their own currency can lock in additional returns.

Overseas investors now account for roughly 65% of monthly cash transactions of Japanese bonds, up from 12% in 2009.

But local institutions are still the biggest buyers of Japanese debt, and their appetite for buying more is being held back by heightened volatility.

What’s at stake if demand stays weak in 2026?

Persistently weak demand for bonds — and the higher yields that come with it — would increase borrowing costs across Japan, affecting the government, companies and households. There are already worries about Japan’s huge debt burden.

It also leaves the BOJ in a difficult position, as the central bank balances calls to keep borrowing costs low against the need to lift rates to control inflation.

For the nation’s life insurers, higher bond yields can mean huge paper losses on their domestic bond portfolios, which they have accumulated. Four of Japan’s biggest life insurers reported about $60 billion of combined unrealised losses on their domestic bond holdings for the latest fiscal year, about four times the total a year earlier.

What’s happening with bonds elsewhere around the world?

Many major markets around the world have been experiencing a rout in longer-dated bonds since US President Donald Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, which have heightened inflation risks and, in turn, pushed yields higher. Trump’s latest push to take over Greenland has also caused the price of US Treasuries to tumble.

Adding to the upward pressure on yields, traders are also increasingly betting that some central banks will slow or halt their monetary easing this year, further dampening demand for bonds beyond Japan.

Davos

Before diving into more on Davos (including Cobie’s great input below), let’s look at the top talking points (that aren’t about Don Quixote Trump, still tilting at windmills).

Geopolitics and contested globalisation
Renewing cooperation in a “contested world” is the core frame, with explicit concern over tariffs, trade wars and bloc formation. Leaders are pushing for de-risking rather than decoupling, stressing that tariffs and trade wars have no winners and that outright rejection of globalisation would be self-defeating.

Global growth, imbalances and macro risk
Sessions focus on where new growth will come from amid weak productivity, high debt and regional divergences in demand and investment. Structural imbalances are a recurring theme: American overconsumption, Chinese underconsumption and overinvestment, and European underinvestment and competitiveness gaps.

Technological paradigm shift (AI, quantum, biotech)
The forum highlighted a paradigm shift driven by generative AI, quantum computing, advanced biotech and next-gen energy systems, positioned as new engines of growth. Alongside the upside, there is concern about an “AI bubble”, concentration of capabilities, and the need for shared rules on safety, transparency and cross-border data use.

Responsible deployment and governance of AI
“Deploying innovation responsibly” is one of the five official pillars of AI governance, with heavy emphasis on guardrails for generative AI in finance, health, elections and security. Debates centred on balancing innovation with regulation, preventing misuse and disinformation, and ensuring smaller economies and firms are not locked out of frontier AI.

Climate, energy security and planetary boundaries
One of the conditions that Trump required was a de-emphasis on ‘woke’ topics and climate change (obviously still smarting from his previous Davos encounter with Greta Thunberg.) There were still talks around the topic, though, under the banner of “Building prosperity within planetary boundaries”, combining climate mitigation, adaptation, nature loss, and water security with industrial policy and competitiveness. Clean energy transitions, resilient grids, critical minerals and the role of nuclear, renewables and emerging technologies are framed as both climate and security priorities.

Inequality, social cohesion and trust
Another Trump-designated ‘woke topic’ that we saw verylittle coverage on was rising inequality and social unease, with concern that overlapping cost of living, climate and tech shocks are eroding trust in institutions and elites.

Supply chains, security and economic resilience
Leaders are debating how to de-risk supply chains for energy, food, rare earths, semiconductors and health products without collapsing global trade. Themes include reshoring vs friend shoring, critical infrastructure protection, and building buffers against geopolitical shocks and climate-related disruptions.

Changing world order
Gunboat capitalism. MAGA Marxism. Techno-feudalism — whatever you call it, Donald Trump is upending the global economy as it has been viewed from the Swiss resort synonymous with wealth and power.

Former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak knows from experience what many of the  CEOs, hedge fund moguls and AI billionaires are feeling in their bones.

“The old order is gone,” said Sunak, who led the nation long considered America’s closest ally. “The rules-based system most of us grew up with, that businesses got used to — that is gone. The quicker everyone recognizes it, the better it is. Sitting there and moaning about it is just not useful.” What we took for granted has gone and we are not quite sure what is going to replace it,” he said.

On this new global stage, the US can treat allies like enemies; help itself to Venezuela’s oil; demand that Denmark surrender Greenland — with any country standing in the way facing more tariffs — and jolt businesses, markets and entire economies with the next Truth Social post. To underscore his intent, just this month Trump declared his power is limited only “by my own morality.” We all know that looks like…

And despite all that, Trump has expanded his base of powerful boosters. His once-rocky relationship with Silicon Valley has transformed into a deep alliance: Trump’s America-first agenda for artificial intelligence has won over practically every tech titan, as the White House bulldozes traditional, commercial diplomacy with a disruptive, global mandate.

This reality is reflected on an international scale at Davos, where phrases like stakeholder capitalism and social inclusion gained global currency. One year into Trump’s second term, and with three more to go, the official theme for the World Economic Forum is almost comical: “A Spirit of Dialogue.”

David Malpass, former president of the World Bank — one of the avatars of the US-led financial order that emerged in 1944 to rebuild war-ravaged Europe — said Trump needed to flex his muscle to change “the so-called world order.” And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, according to Malpass. There was quite a bit of this overt pandering to Trump at Davos.

The goal, he said, is a worthy one: “To break the quagmire of elitism and globalism.” Ironically, of course, under Trump’s second term so far, the world’s richest people have added record amounts to their collective wealth (including his personal wealth).

How times have changed, in his address at Davos in 2020, Trump took aim at the teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg, who was sitting in the sixth row. Doom-mongering about the planet was foolish when he was ushering in a golden new era for America, the president thundered.

This year, to book the US president, the ultimate Davos draw, and get him to return to the high-altitude think-in, organisers apparently promised the White House they would downplay climate change and other topics that Trump considers “woke.”

Like the forum, which finessed its agenda to please the president, many Davos-goers appear to be willing to do what it takes to protect and advance their interests in his new world of radical uncertainty. But then there were those who decided to speak their minds, such as Sunak, Gavin Newsom and Mark Carney. A special mention to NATO as well, which has stood firm on its principles and if anything now knows exactly what its future task will look like. 

More than 60 heads of state are scheduled to appear, as the forum predicts the largest turnout in its history.

When news broke that Trump was heading to Davos, bigwigs everywhere polished up their brown noses and rushed to book tickets. More than 60 heads of state are scheduled to appear, as the forum predicts the largest turnout in its history.

Money — lots of it — is at stake. Last year, Davos was buzzing about DeepSeek, the Chinese startup taking aim at OpenAI. China’s AI sector has continued to churn out open-source, inexpensive models, threatening the financial prospects of rivals in Silicon Valley.

Since then, the Trump administration has countered China’s AI aspirations by pushing other nations, particularly wealthy Middle East petrostates, to buy American chips and software. Trump has set a previously unthinkable industrial policy, including taking a national stake in Intel Corp. He forced China’s ByteDance Ltd. to sell its TikTok unit.

Trump has long disdained Europe’s elites, but his hostility is now official White House policy.

Nothing is safe – but diversify anyway (an opinion)

This interesting opinion from the UBS boss:

Diversification is even more important now for investors, although there are “no safe assets,” according to UBS Group AG boss Sergio Ermotti.

Honestly, there is no choice to the dollar,” Ermotti said during a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday. While he sees value in global equities, he added that asset prices are inevitably tied to geopolitical issues.

Diversifying away from America is impossible” given its economic might, after AkademikerPension became the first European pension fund to vow to sell its US government debt holdings.

On the panel about the future of artificial intelligence at Davos, Ermotti remained positive about the long-term benefit from the technology. However, there is a difference “between the potential of the technology and where valuations are,” said Harvard Professor Gita Gopinath, another member of the panel.

“A point I wanted to make when we talk about equities in comparison to the dotcom period, the scale of exposure is much more, so any correction, regardless of the size of the correction, the consequences of that for the world economy are larger this time around than back then.” In the near-term, Gopinath said weakness in the dollar and fiscal stimulus may drive inflation higher in the US. Affordability is a key concern for US voters in the lead-up to the midterm elections in November.

Davos fact-checking…

Just for fun, herewith some of the (fact-checked) lowlights from Trump’s speech at Davos:

Claim: “After the war, we gave Greenland back to Denmark,” and were “stupid” to do so.

Fact check: The US never owned Greenland; Denmark has held sovereignty for centuries though the US had a wartime base and a 1951 defence treaty, so there was nothing to “give back”.

Claim: The US effectively “returned” Greenland out of generosity and Europe is now “ungrateful.”

Fact check: Historians note there was no post 1945 transfer; existing arrangements are defence and basing rights, not ownership, so the generosity narrative is inaccurate.

Claim: The US “pays for 100% of NATO” or “virtually 100%” because others “weren’t paying their bills.”

Fact check: NATO’s own data show the US funds about 16% of the common NATO budget, and while it spends more on defence than allies, all members finance their own forces and most now meet or exceed the GDP target.

Claim: Before Trump, allies “paid nothing” or “almost nothing.”

Fact check: European defence spending had been rising since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, and allies have always contributed to NATO’s budget and their own militaries.

Claim: Germany generates “22% less electricity than in 2017” and prices are “64% higher,” purely because of green policies.

Fact check: Output has fallen and prices did spike, but mainly due to the 2022–23 gas supply shock from Russia; renewables were not the primary driver, and the exact figures he cited do not match official data.

Claim: The UK now produces “just one third” of the total energy it did in 1999.

Fact check: UK primary energy production has declined, but not to one third of 1999 levels; the statement exaggerates the fall and ignores the shift toward imports and renewables.

Claim: China “makes all the windmills but doesn’t have wind farms,” implying it only exports turbines.

Fact check: China is the world’s largest installer and user of wind power, with massive onshore and offshore capacity (estimated at 50% of global wind power generation) as well as manufacturing.

Claim: The 2020 US election was “rigged” and people will be prosecuted for it.

Fact check: Courts, state officials from both parties and federal agencies have repeatedly found no evidence of outcome-changing fraud in 2020; dozens of lawsuits failed and investigations closed without supporting his claim.

Claim: He “settled eight wars,” sometimes counting disputes like Egypt–Ethiopia water tensions.

Fact check: Independent reviews note no evidence that eight distinct wars ended because of his actions; in several cases he re-labelled diplomatic flare-ups or long-running conflicts as “wars” to inflate the total.

Claim: He secured “18 trillion dollars” of new investment commitments in his first year in office.

Fact check: Even the White House’s own past figures were roughly half that and themselves overstated, counting announcements and projections rather than actual capital flows.

Emerging Market  ETFs having a moment in the sun

Investors are pouring cash into emerging-market funds at a record pace as momentum builds for a rotation out of US assets.

For example the $134 billion iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has absorbed almost $6 billion this month.

It’s more evidence that investors are piling into the asset class, with technology stocks from Asia soaring to record highs and asset-managers around the world looking for alternatives to US markets.

One of the world’s biggest funds tracking US equities, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, has bled $13.4 billion this month, putting it on track for its worst month of outflows since March, as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats over Greenland roiled markets.

Accelerating investments in EM equity funds coincide with the revival of a diversification trend in which investors pare their exposure to US assets in response to President Trump’s volatile policy decisions. As early as last year, some investors began to view higher-quality emerging markets as safer than developed peers, citing stronger fiscal and current-account positions and more predictable policy settings.

Emerging-market stocks are outperforming their US peers at the start of 2026. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index January gain to 6.6%, the best start in three years. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index is up 1.2% this year. The moves follow EM equities’ first year of outperformance over the US benchmark since 2017.

The MSCI gauge has recaptured a record high after Trump’s latest comments on his Greenland plans eased fears of a blow-up in transatlantic relations. And the rally in artificial-intelligence stocks remains on track, despite concerns over valuations.

Author: Dawn Ridler

The WEF- No longer a talk shop

The World Economic Forum has for many years been a talk shop for world and business leaders but this year it seems to have become the stage for countries to announce their strategic position on the world stage. The WEF seems to have gotten a second wind.

The show-stopper must surely go to Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister (extracts from his speach in italics below). The country was lost under Justin Treadeau but in very short order, the previous Governor of the Bank of England and the head of the Canadian Central Bank has brought clarity and focus to his country. His speech centred on the options that are open to a middle power like Canada.  

“This aphorism of Thucydides is presented as inevitable — as the natural logic of international relations reasserting itself. And faced with this logic, there is a strong tendency for countries to go along to get along. To accommodate. To avoid trouble. To hope that compliance will buy safety. It won’t.”

This has been the position of smaller countries across the globe, not only now but for many decades. The only difference is that going along with the US has become a lot more difficult in a world led by geopolitical tension and where subservience takes a greater toll.

“In 1978, the Czech dissident Václav Havel, later president, wrote an essay called The Power of the Powerless. And in it, he asked a simple question: How did the communist system sustain itself?

And his answer began with a greengrocer. Every morning, this shopkeeper places a sign in his window: “Workers of the world, unite!” He doesn’t believe it. No one does. But he places the sign anyway to avoid trouble, to signal compliance, to get along. And because every shopkeeper on every street does the same, the system persists.

Not through violence alone, but through the participation of ordinary people in rituals they privately know to be false.

Havel called this “living within a lie.” The system’s power comes not from its truth but from everyone’s willingness to perform as if it were true. And its fragility comes from the same source: when even one person stops performing — when the greengrocer removes his sign — the illusion begins to crack.

Friends, it is time for companies and countries to take their signs down”

Recently, Canada has signed a deal on EV imports from China in exchange for greater access to Canadian agricultural products. Whereas Canada in the past followed the US’s lead not only on trade but also on international order, the Canadians have come to the realisation that keeping up with the pretence is going to cost them a lot more down the line than today. Going it alone may be in their best interest after all.

“Let me be direct: We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.”

Over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extreme global integration.

But more recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons. Tariffs as leverage. Financial infrastructure as coercion. Supply chains as vulnerabilities to exploitation.

You cannot “live within the lie” of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.”

Canada, under the leadership of a very skilled Mark Carney, has come to this realisation and the question now is will Europe also come to this conclusion after America’s failed attempt at taking over Greenland? Rather sooner than later would be my advice, regardless of the pain that may be involved. Mr Carney points to the new world order and calls it a world of fortresses that will “be poorer, more fragile and less sustainable”. And it is within this world that the allocation of capital becomes paramount.

Where open borders exist and trade flows freely, valuation should be the tool of choice for fund managers. This is the old-world order. Buying undervalued opportunities at some point will have their time in the sun, allowing patient investors to realise gains. This rupture, though, requires more than just the discovery of cheap assets as a source for returns. Undoubtedly, the new world order that is emerging will have a lot more friction in it than the old-world order.

Sourcing, manufacturing and trade routes are going to become more expensive. Not only are the companies in the supply chain now important but the countries in which they are domiciled are going to become equally important. After the Greenland debacle, will GE (General Electric), even though it’s a global company, have the same opportunities as Siemens? Pricing Power is going to become paramount for the survival of companies. Marginal players will either fall by the wayside or be absorbed. Regional players, depending on their product/service set will either flourish or go out of business. Identifying winners has just become a lot more difficult.

And then there is the sticky issue of currencies.

The US Dollar plays a dominant role across the globe, but its latest theatrics over Greenland may give the world time to pause and think. The world can see that the US is a global power in decline, and their efforts to maintain the old status quo can only be done by bullying or all-out confrontation. The latter, they have chosen to use sparingly for now undoubtedly because it is going to require far greater political will.

President Trump now relies on threats, insults and dominance to attempt to exert influence in a world which is taking him less seriously by the day. The Swiss newspaper, Blick’s headline in response to Trump’s plane landing there last week: “You don’t like Switzerland and you treat us unfairly, why are you even here? Can you also make Switzerland great again? How would a military annexation of Greenland by the US be any different from Russia’s occupation of Ukraine?”

That’s a fair question and one that the average American cannot answer either. But the midterms towards the end of this year may just shout rather than whisper that change may be forthcoming. Is the damage to  brand USA done though? Good luck to Trump’s successor in piecing all of this back together again.  

Mark Carney said “Middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu”. The WEF has become a place where like-minded nations can find each other.

Sovereignty and territorial integrity may now become the anchors that fuse nations together rather than human rights and climate goals. Mark Carney calls it being “principled and pragmatic”  I think this is what the future may look like… well done Mr Carney! 

 Author: Cobie Le Grange 

EXCHANGE RATES and other Indices: 

The Rand/Dollar closed at R16.10 (R16.50, …R16.91, R17.13, R17.36, R17.13, R17.27, R17.31, R17.25, R17.38, R17.50, R17.22 , R17.35, R17.33, R17.37, R17.58, R17.65, R17.44, R17.61, R17.74, R18.15,R17.76, R17.72, R17.90, R17.58, R17.89, R17.99, R17.92, R17.77, R17.95, R17.88)

The Rand/Pound closed at R21.97 (R22.13, …R22.57, R22.68, R22.74, R22.56, R22.69, R22.76, R22.96, R23.34, R23.37, R23.19, R23.22, R23.35, R23.55, R23.73, R23.84, R23.53, R23.84, R23.84, R24.09, R23.88, R23.76, R24.22, R24.08, R24.49, R24.22, R24.35,  R24.05, R24.18)

The Rand/Euro closed the week at R19.04 (R19.20, …R19.68, R19.86, R19.99, R19.96, R19.98, R20.02, R20.06, R20.26, R20.33, R 20.22, R20.30, R20.35, R20.38, R20.61,  R20.62, R20.44, R20.56, R20.64, R21.04, R20.86, R20.61, R20.93, R 20.70, R20.91, R20.74, R20.68, R20.24, R20,37)

Brent Crude: Closed the week $65.88 ($63.34, …$63.71, $63.19, $62.42, $63.94, $63.61 $64.66, $65.04, $61.27, $62.14, $64.28, $69.67, $66.57, $66.80, $65.52, $67.38, $67.73, $66.08, $66.07, $69.46, $68.29, $69.21, $70.58, $68.27, $67.39, $77.27, $74.38, $66.56, $62.61, $65.41)

Bitcoin closed at $89,295 ($90,585, … $90,809, $86,334, $94,990, $101,562, $109.936, $112,492, $106,849, $111,888, $124,858, $109,446, $115,838, $115,770,  $110,752, $108,923, $114,916, $117,371, $118,043, $113,608, $118,139, $118,214, $117,871, $108,056, $107,461, $103,455) 

Articles and Blogs:   

Holiday checklist NEW
Next year – Action Plan NEW
Next year – Vision, Mission etc NEW
Medical Risk Mitigation
Next Year – Consolidation
Abdication or diversification?
Carbo-loading your retirement
Spoiled for choice 
Who needs a plan anyway  
8 questions you need to ask about retirement  
What to do when interest rates drop 
How to survive volatility in your investments 

What to do when interest rates drop 
Difficult Financial Conversations 
Financial Implications of Longevity 
Kick Start Your Own Retirement Plan
You matter more than your kids in retirement  
To catch a falling knife 
Income at retirement 
2025 Budget 
Apportioning blame for your financial state 
Tempering fear and greed  
New Year’s resolutions over? Try a Wealth Bingo Card instead.
Wills and Estate Planning (comprehensive 3 in one post) 
 Pre-retirement – The make-or-break moments 
Some unconventional thoughts on wealth and risk management 
Wealth creation is a balancing act over time 
Wealth traps waiting for unsuspecting entrepreneurs 
Two Pot pension system demystified 

Cobie Legrange and Dawn Ridler, 
Rexsolom Invest, Licensed FSP 45521.
Email: cobie@rexsolom.co.zadawn@rexsolom.co.za
Website: rexsolom.co.za, wealthecology.co.za

© 2025 REXSOLOM INVEST. AUTHORISED FINANCIAL SERVICE PROVIDER, FSP NO. 45521