| The podcast to this newsletter can be found here Market View This week on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), market activity has been quiet with , typical for this time of year as global markets transition into the Northern Hemisphere summer. The JSE Top 40 index has experienced moderate trading volumes, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing political uncertainty and low liquidity. Despite this, the JSE has shown resilience in 2025, with the Top 40 index up approximately 16.5% year-to-date, though a narrow group of outperforming stocks drives this rally while many others remain under pressure. Notably, the platinum sector has been a standout, with shares like Anglo American Platinum, Northam Platinum, and Impala Platinum delivering strong gains, supported by robust demand and positive analyst outlooks.  The broader JSE All Share Index recently reached record highs, buoyed by favourable economic indicators such as a lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.8%, which has improved inflation expectations and raised hopes for interest rate cuts later in the year. Additionally, soaring gold prices above $2,500 per ounce have contributed to market optimism. Global Indices for this weekAsia: Japan’s Nikkei edged down (~−0.4%), while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai rose modestly (+0.5%) . Europe: FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX each gained on tariff delay hopes and bargain tech/financials.U.S.: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow closed the period up ~0.5–0.9%, buoyed by Nvidia‘s AI surge and resilient labour/corporate data.Nvidia became the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap.  Tariffs I’m sure everyone is sick of this being the major topic of conversation. Still, unfortunately, this topic has such a huge potential impact on global economies, we have to keep up, and try and figure out what the consequences will be, if they can be believed, and whether or not the can will be kicked down the road yet again by TACO Don. (BTW, the image above is a Mango Catfish TACO.) Even a presidential assertion that there would be no further extensions after the new Aug. 1 deadline had minimal impact. That ought to be a big deal. If the tariffs indeed go ahead exactly as announced, then the average rate on all US imports will be its highest in a century, back to levels last seen during the Depression-era Smoot-Hawley Act. Suppose the countries whose tariffs haven’t been announced yet also see rates in line with what was unveiled on April 2. In that case, overall levies will be the greatest since the era of Trump’s favourite president, the arch-protectionist William McKinley (in office from 1897 to 1901). An effective rate of close to 20% would be far worse than what was expected at the turn of the year, exceeding anything Trump explicitly promised during his campaign. Equity traders, however, seem to be coalescing around lower rates than this, implying confidence in significant climbdowns, presumably in return for substantial concessions from other countries. A poll of traders found virtual unanimity that the effective rate will settle above 10% (and therefore its highest since the Second World War): Copper is an important commodity, vital in many industries, and is now at an all-time high (see below). Whether or not 50% levies are eventually imposed, Trump’s threat profoundly affected anyone who wants to buy or sell copper now. There’s a broader question over the potential economic impact that tariff uncertainty could have. Worries have quietened somewhat due to the lack of any serious economic downturn in the three months since the Liberation Day levies were announced. But it would be unwise to bank on this, particularly when investors have left no room for error by bidding the S&P 500 up to a record. The messaging from both the US president, but particularly from Bessent, seems to be guiding to “more negotiations” into a “newish” August “sort of” deadline. Given prior pauses, extensions and pullbacks, it is reasonable for the market to assume that the latest round of tariffs (via letters) won’t amount to much. And while investors, able to move money within seconds, corporate managers don’t have that luxury. They need to grow accustomed to a world in which trade policy is not set by agreed-upon rules or accepted institutions. The World Trade Organisation oversees just these issues. It is still in business, but the US has no interest in using its services. We are living in uncertain times (in case you hadn’t noticed). Time still marches on, and tariff collections are blowing up – back at levels last seen in the 1940s.   Dollar The dollar continues to remain below the 100 level on the DXY, with a slight surge in recent days. Over the years, we have often discussed the question of whether to treat Bitcoin as a currency or a commodity. The graph below shows an interesting inverse correlation between the dollar and bitcoin since Liberation Day.:  Where is it going in the second half of this year? Is it merely resting, or sticking to its perch only because it has been nailed there (by the exorbitant privilege which comes with being the world’s reserve currency)? The trend is still decidedly negative, with the DXY dollar index now further below its own 200-day moving average than at any time in 20 years. Trump’s recent comments show a desire for a weaker U.S. dollar to boost exports and manufacturing, but the dollar remains strong due to economic realities and market forces. His tariff and trade policies have added complexity, sometimes causing volatility and uncertainty that affect the dollar’s value unpredictably.  |
| Copper – why has Trump got himself all hot and bothered over it this week? Copper is a very important mineral with a broad spectrum of uses, probably the most important is its role in infrastructure and telecommunications. The US has always been a major copper producer but this has tailed off in recent decades.  Trump appears to have an odd, but maybe typical ‘Silent Generation’ romanticised view US mining and industry.  The reduction in copper mining in the United States is due to a combination of economic, regulatory, and resource-related factors: Declining Ore Grades and Aging Mines: Many existing U.S. copper mines are aging and experiencing lower ore grades, which reduces productivity and increases costs. This natural depletion of high-quality deposits makes mining less economically attractive. Legal and Political Opposition: Proposed new copper mining projects in the U.S. often face significant legal challenges and political resistance, including environmental concerns and local opposition (“not in my backyard” attitudes). Copper sulphide, an inevitable by-product of copper mining process and oxidises to sulphuric acid – a highly toxic and corrosive substance. This slows down permitting and development, creating uncertainty and delays for mining companies. It is this ‘not in my back yard’ approach that has led to a significant increase in copper imports into the states. Complex and Slow Regulatory Environment: The U.S. mining industry faces a fragmented and inefficient regulatory process, requiring multiple federal agency approvals and extensive paperwork. This bureaucratic complexity increases costs and delays project timelines compared to countries like Australia and Canada. Economic Factors and Market Conditions: Global trade tensions, tariffs, and fears of economic slowdown—especially due to China’s slowing demand—have led to a plunge in copper prices. Lower prices reduce incentives for investment and production in U.S. mines. Labour Shortages and Competition: Historically, labour shortages and competition for workers with other higher-paying industries have also constrained mining operations. This has certainly not improved over the years. Shift to Imports: Due to these challenges, the U.S. now imports a significant portion of its copper (about 40% as of 2022), as domestic production struggles to keep pace with growing demand. Lack of New Discoveries: The global copper industry, including the U.S., faces a shortage of major new copper discoveries. Exploration budgets have shifted away from greenfield projects, limiting new supply sources. This 50% copper tariff might just be Trump’s biggest own goal in this tariff fiasco to date. The impact of the tariffs will also affect copper pricing and movements around the globe, both in the short and long terms. The United States has sucked in vast quantities of copper so far in 2025, with analysts estimating imports totalled 881,000 tons in the first half of this year compared to an underlying requirement of roughly 441,000 tons. This means that once the tariff is implemented U.S. imports are likely to plunge as the stockpiled, and cheaper, metal is used up. This is likely to drag global copper prices lower, reversing a trend of rising prices since Trump’s return to the White House.  Graph: Price of Copper  Africa v Trump US President Donald Trump met with African leaders in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington on Wednesday, July 9, 2025. Following six months of policy whiplash on trade, tariffs, travel bans, aid, minerals and peacemaking, the message from US President Donald Trump to Africa seems clear, as he put it this week: “We’re shifting from aid to trade…In the long run, this will be far more effective and sustainable and beneficial than anything else that we could be doing together.” So, on Wednesday last week, the president hosted five West African leaders — from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal — at the White House and said there was “tremendous wealth there and potential.” Just two weeks ago, an ebullient Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio oversaw the signing of a peace and minerals deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda And, the week before, Trump administration officials dominated discussions at the 2700-delegate 17th US.-Africa Business Summit in Luanda, Angola. It is pretty clear that Trump’s knowledge of our continent is poor, at best, and diplomacy is not in his lexicon. He told the president of Liberia, a nation formed by freed American slaves in 1847 with English as the official language, that he speaks “such good English” . He has at times seemed to seek obeisance rather than to strike deals and influence those African leaders he meets. On Wednesday, the five leaders were made to do a whip-around of praises to Trump. America is already on the backfoot: An Afrobarometer survey in May showed that 60% of Africans believe China has a positive influence on the continent compared with 53% for the US. China became the continent’s largest trading partner in 2009. In 2023, 52 out of the 54 African countries (97%) trade more with China than with the US. China-Africa trade climbed to $295 billion in 2024 compared with US trade of just $71.6 billion. America is thus playing catch-up in Africa. The visa bans have caused outrage in Africa — and more is coming. As delegates arrived in Luanda on June 22 for the US-Africa summit, the Senegal women’s national basketball team had just cancelled its training camp in the US after some team members’ visas were rejected thanks to the Trump travel restrictions. A week earlier, Trump had expanded his travel ban list to include 26 more African countries — 36 of Africa’s 54 nations may now be fully or partially banned. Lesotho was slapped with a 50% rate and has now declared a state of emergency to override its own laws to pursue job creation programs. With 38% unemployment, Lesotho says 40,000 jobs could be lost as garment factories close. These missteps are invariably compared with China’s conduct in Africa. In areas where the America has behaved punitively, China has offered what seems on the surface to be opportunity and respect. In mid-June, China’s President Xi Jinping announced that all 53 African nations that have diplomatic ties with China will be accorded “zero-tariff treatment for 100% tariff lines.” Rwanda, Kagame and Trump Is the new Trump doctrine the right way? Some say so. Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame said in February that he “completely agrees with President Donald J. Trump on many things” after the US froze aid. (Just a reminder here, this is the country that undertook to ‘house’ the UK’s illegal migrant population). You may not know that I lived (with my parents) in Rwanda for a total of 5 years, so I have obviously followed this country very closely for decades. Paul Kagame is a Rwandan politician and former military officer who has been the President of Rwanda since 2000. Born on October 23, 1957, in southern Rwanda, Kagame’s family (Watutsi tribe) fled ethnic persecution when he was two years old, and he grew up in exile in Uganda during the Rwandan Revolution, which ended Tutsi political dominance. Note that the Hutu were mostly responsible for the Rwandan genocide, and still make up 85% of the ethnic population of Rwanda. In Uganda, Kagame joined Yoweri Museveni’s rebel army and became a senior military officer. In 1990, while studying at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, he led the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), a Tutsi-led rebel group that invaded Rwanda to end the oppressive Hutu regime. After the assassination of Rwandan President Juvénal Habyarimana in 1994 triggered the genocide in which 500,000 to 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu were killed, Kagame resumed the civil war and led the RPF to military victory, effectively ending the genocide. Kagame also played a significant role in regional politics, including involvement in the overthrow of Mobutu Sese Seko in the Democratic Republic of Congo and supporting peace efforts there. He has been re-elected multiple times, with constitutional amendments allowing him to extend his presidency beyond initial term limits. While credited with stabilizing Rwanda and driving rapid economic growth, Kagame’s presidency has also been criticized for authoritarian tendencies and alleged involvement in regional conflicts. Author: Dawn Ridler  Meta and the AI race The AI race has gone from full on social project to wealth creation on steroids in a very short space of time. Lets face it, the beginnings of AI would have attracted technologists on the fringe or for those that had a glimpse into the future. That isn’t everyone and I am sure many observers would have told them to rather focus on things which could pay the bills such as networking, and app development. This is why the beginnings of AI was thought to be a social project more than anything else. But profits have become the priority. Last week Meta made an offer to Apple’s former AI models team head luring Ruoming Pang with a $200mill pay package. “Nice work if you can get it” comes to mind. Mr Pang will join Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross in Meta’s Super-Intelligence team. The rockstar era for AI has started. It’s not all cash upfront as this is earned over several years with certain performance milestones built into the equation. So why did Apple not counteroffer? That is perhaps because they see the AI race slightly differently. They are, after all, a device business. They are happy to sell you an amazing device from where you can enable whatever AI enabled application. It’s their app store which enables this and for them perhaps the AI race is more about learning than it is about winning. As long as the public covet their devices, half the battle is already won. Sam Altman from OpenAI has spoken candidly about the efforts of Meta in attracting talent in his organisation. For now, he claims OpenAI has a better culture and innovations. But at what point do employees go for the cash rather than the culture? Lets face it… even half of $200mil is life changing cash. And this is where one has to admire Mr Zuckerberg. Meta knows that they don’t possess a platform such as is the case at Apple. The public engages with Meta through their social media applications such as FaceBook, Whatsapp and Instagram. They know that these can be interchanged quickly for other applications based on popularity and functionality. And as culture evolves there are going to be other applications making a bid for Meta customers. This is the plight of an aggregator company, and it requires effort to stay ahead of the pack. What Meta has come to realise is that once social media becomes empowered by AI this could be devastating to them. As an example, Meta sees a world where one uses their Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. You as a user will see the world as normal but will also have input from the built in cameras. A digital overlay in the glasses will give updates and notifications powered by Meta’s applications. This is a world where you no longer look down at your phone. Your everyday life is now automatically enhanced merely by wearing glasses. If Meta can ensure that they offer the best AI driven experience they would win the race. This is the world Meta dreams of and as of last week is betting heavily to bring to fruition. I would generally become concerned as an investor once companies start spending aggressively to achieve an outcome. But one must remember that big tech companies are very cash generative. This is what they are trying to protect and enhance over time. Only time will tell if this bet pays off for Meta. If it doesn’t, they haven’t necessarily broken the bank to find out. Author – Cobie Le Grange EXCHANGE RATES:  The Rand/Dollar closed at R17.90 (R17.58, R17.89, R17.99, R17.92, R17.77, R17.95, R17.88, R18.04, R18.16, R18.39, R18.64, R18.89, R19.12, R19.10, R18.36, R18.21, R18.18, R18.20, R18.71, R18.35, R18.38, R18.41, R18,67, R18.38, R18.73, R18.03, R18.05, R18.11, R18.21,)  The Rand/Pound closed at R24.22 (R24.08, R24.49, R24.22, R24.35, R24.05, R24.18, R24.14, R23.95, R24.16, R24.40, R24.82, R25.10, R25.01, R24.73, R23.78, R23.55, R23.52, R23.50, R23.53, R23.19, R23.12, R22.85, R23,16, R22.93, R22.80, R22.99, R22.98, R22.72, R22.99, R22.73, )  The Rand/Euro closed the week at R20.93 (R 20.70, R20.91, R20.74, R20.68, R20.24, R20,37, R20.27, R20.13, R20.43, R20.78, R21.21, R21.52, R21.72, R20.93, R19.95, R19.72, R19.83, R19.72, R19.41, R19.20, R19.29, R19.02, R19,35, R19.31, R19.23, R19.09, R18.87, R19.19, R18.85, ,)  Brent Crude: Closed the week $70.58 ($68.27, $67.39, $77.27, $74.38, $66.56, $62.61, $65.41, $63.88, $61.29, $65.86, $67.72 $64.76, $65.95, $72.40, $72.13, $70.51, $70.33, $73.03, $74.23, $74.51, $74.65, $76,40, $77.60, $79.98, $71.00, $72.38, $75.05, $70.87, $73.86, $73.99).  Bitcoin closed at $117,871 ($108,056, $107,461, $103,455, $105,017, $105,643, $104,049, $103,551, $104,615, $96,405, $94,185, $84,571, $84,695, $82,661, $83,074, $84,889, $82,639, $83,710, $85,696, $96,151, $96,821, $96,286, $99,049, $104,559, $104,971, $99,341, $97,113, $97,950, ). Articles and Blogs: Difficult Financial Conversations NEW Kick Start your own Retirement Plan NEW You matter more than your kids – in retirement To catch a falling knife Income at retirement 2025 Budget Apportioning blame for your financial state Tempering fear and greed New Year’s resolutions over? Try a Wealth Bingo Card instead. Wills and Estate Planning (comprehensive 3 in one post) Pre-retirement – The make-or-break moments Some unconventional thoughts on wealth and risk management Wealth creation is a balancing act over time Wealth traps waiting for unsuspecting entrepreneurs Two Pot pension system demystified Keeping your legacy shining bright Financial well-being when dealing with Dementia and Alzheimers Weathering the storm Pruning your wealth farm Should you change your investments with changing politics? Taking a holistic view of your wealth Why do I need a financial advisor? Costs Fees and Commissions The NHI and what to do about it New-Normal for Retirement? Locking-In Interest rates – The inflation story Situs – The Myths and Reality Tax Residency – New Rules new headaches Are retirement annuities dead A new look at retirement Offshore investing – an unpopular opinion Cobie Legrange and Dawn Ridler, Rexsolom Invest, Licensed FSP 45521. Email: cobie@rexsolom.co.za, dawn@rexsolom.co.za Website: rexsolom.co.za, wealthecology.co.za |