Six weeks into the Trump-Iran war, markets are carrying on like it doesn’t exist. Records are still being broken, and earnings are still being exceeded, not even the volatility is saying much. What could change that? If oil supply issues really bite? Japan has made an unusual move to export arms.
I was covering for Michael Avery on his Classic Business show last week, and had some very interesting interviews. I can recommend listening to my chat with Simon Brown on ETFs. Your summary with links, if you’d like to curate your content: All-Time Highs Are Here Again! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 surged 10.7% […]
Markets are moving more on hope than realistic expectations, as we have seen repeatedly during this war. The only salvation is to understand the time objective of the investment and asset allocation and behave accordingly.
Your summary with links, if you’d like to curate your content: Whiplash Yet? The market euphoria following the ceasefire announcement raises serious questions. The truce appears to enshrine Iran’s ability to charge shipping through an international waterway — something that would have been unthinkable weeks ago. Inflation expectations remain elevated, the Fed is priced for […]
Markets and economies are hanging onto every bit of news and hope coming out of the Middle East – but the longer this goes on, the longer it will take to recover. Markets are giving us rare opportunities to buy into this late cycle, but you have to have a cool head and strong stomach.
Your summary with links, if you’d like to curate your content: A volatile week across global markets. The JSE remains ~10% below its February high, while the SARB held the repo rate at 6.75% amid rand weakness and rising oil prices. South Africa’s GDP grew 1.1% in 2025. The US Fed held rates steady as […]
It’s all a chaotic mess of changing geo-econo-political players right now. We are probably witnessing a change in the world order in real time, and everyone, including markets, can just watch and wait.
Your summary with links, if you’d like to curate your content: Taking it on the chin: It’s Still About EarningsEquities are holding up because earnings expectations haven’t cracked—yet. If the war drags on, downgrades follow, and markets lose their main support. Can US Consumers Keep Buying?Consumers are under pressure from rising fuel costs, high interest […]
Your summary with links, if you’d like to curate your content: Oil Reserves: The IEA coordinated its largest-ever emergency reserve release of 400 million barrels, dwarfing the 2022 Ukraine response. However, with Hormuz disruptions removing up to 16 million barrels per day, the release buys roughly 25 days of cover at best, a bridge and […]
Only days into this Iran war, and the economic foreshadowing is already rearing its head. Markets are slowing, but there’s no panic – yet. The longer the Straits of Hormuz stay closed, though, the greater the impact, and the longer it’ll take to recover. Oil has joined gold on the resource supercycle.